Bleacher Report's 2024 Super Bowl LVIII Championship Picks (2024)

Let's get down to business. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are ready to play in Super Bowl 58, and bettors have salivated over this game for two weeks with hopes to win big with their wagers.

In addition to a selection against the spread, they also shared insight on why they went over or under on the projected game total, picked the MVP for the game and noted the best player prop bet to add on to your final cashout.

Who does our NFL crew favor? Do they believe Kansas City adds another chapter to its dynastic run with head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce, or is the panel prepared to see San Francisco hoist a Lombardi Trophy for the first time in 29 years?

Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends courtesy of the Action Network.

When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

Expected attendance: 62,000

Early total: 47.5

Referee: Bill Vinovich

49ers injuries to watch: Among the most notable names, George Kittle (toe) and Arik Armstead (knee and foot) went through a limited practice on Wednesday. Backup cornerback Ambry Thomas (ankle) and backup linebacker Oren Burks (shoulder) practiced with limitations as well.

Offensive tackle Trent Williams had his usual rest day to start the week. He hasn't missed time since sitting out back-to-back outings with an ankle injury in Weeks 7 and 8.

Chiefs injuries to watch: The Kansas City Chiefs have a few key players who started the week with a full practice despite bumps and bruises, including cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (calf), Chris Jones (quad), Isiah Pacheco (toe and ankle) and Rashee Rice (ankle). Barring a setback, they're all likely to suit up after playing in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago.

Running back Jerick McKinnon hasn't played since he suffered a groin injury in Week 15. He missed Wednesday's practice.

Keep an eye on All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney. He could miss consecutive games because of a pectoral injury. Though according to NFL Network's James Palmer, people around Thuney believe "there is a shot" that he plays Sunday.

Davenport: San Francisco -2

This is not an easy call to make. The 49ers are the better team from one to 53 on paper, but the Chiefs have that Mahomes guy—and it's really hard to bet against that Mahomes guy. But for the Brock Purdy biopic (starring Ryan Gosling as Purdy) to get greenlit, San Francisco needs to win this game.

The world needs that movie, so just as they did against the Lions in the NFC title game, Purdy and the 49ers will figure out a way to pull out a close one at the end. Niners hold off the Chiefs and win by a field goal.

Gagnon: Kansas City +2

I'm done. I can't pick against the Chiefs anymore. They had an off year? Doesn't seem to matter. The 49ers are the more talented team? Don't care. At this point, you just can't go against Mahomes and Andy Reid, especially with points in your back pocket. Chiefs win 24-21.

Hanford: Kansas City +2

It was hard to doubt Mahomes against Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, so it feels strange to start now. The 49ers are the better team overall on paper, but Kansas City just feels like a team that won't be denied.

San Francisco holds distinct advantages against the Chiefs' run defense, and Thuney possibly missing the game is a big blow to K.C.'s offensive line, but I see this being a tight game where just a few plays will swing the outcome.

Steve Spagnuolo's defense forces Purdy into one too many crucial errors, and Mahomes plays virtually mistake-free football in the playoffs again to win his third ring.

Knox: Kansas City +2

I'm still a little surprised that the 49ers are favored in this one. Can they win? Absolutely, but I really like the idea of getting a couple of points with Kansas City.

While San Francisco's defense is loaded with talent, Kansas City's is the more complete unit. In what I expect to be a very back-and-forth game, that's going to make a huge difference.

Both defenses have been susceptible to the run, which gives Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco an edge. However, I think Kansas City will generate big passing plays more consistently thanks to Travis Kelce's ability to create separation in the secondary.

Reid and the Chiefs have also been phenomenal at scripting early drives during their playoff run. I see Kansas City going up early and putting more pressure on Purdy and the 49ers' passing game. San Francisco found ways to battle back against the Packers and Lions, but Kansas City is good enough on the back end to prevent that from happening a third straight time. Kansas City holds on late, winning 27-25.

Moton: San Francisco -2

San Francisco will do what the Baltimore Ravens refused to do against the Chiefs' 18th-ranked run defense in the AFC Championship Game–run the ball.

The 49ers will give the Chiefs a heavy dose of league-leading rusher Christian McCaffrey, who's going to set the tone early in the game. Though head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't used Deebo Samuel on the ground in recent weeks as much as he did early in the season, don't be surprised to see the dynamic playmaker rack up a couple of key first downs or a touchdown as a ball-carrier.

And though San Francisco's defense ranks 14th against passing attacks, Nick Bosa will lead a relentless pass rush that rattles Mahomes enough to force him into a crucial mistake late in the game to seal a 24-21 win for the 49ers.

O'Donnell: Kansas City +2

Sobleski: San Francisco -2

A week ago, a certain someone said it's difficult to bet against Mahomes. As such, this specific pick is far more difficult than usual. Surely, there are plenty of people agonizing over which team to choose. In this case, one's head is getting the better of the heart, because the 49ers do have two key advantages that should play into their favor.

First, the Niners have a distinct advantage in the trenches thanks to their predominant run philosophy. San Francisco is a stellar zone-blocking squad, with the famed Shanahan system serving as the base of everything head coach Kyle Shanahan does.

His ability to devise a run game is second to none. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are one of the league's worst teams at defending zone runs, particularly when in base fronts. If the 49ers get up early, they can control this contest.

Second, Thuney's likely absence provides a fissure in Kansas City's offensive armor. Niners defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will use his talented defensive front to attack the weak spot and collapse the pocket around Mahomes, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers once did in Super Bowl 55.

Toporek: Kansas City +2

We're getting points to bet on a Mahomes-led team in the Super Bowl? Against a team that easily could have lost either of its first two playoff games? The Niners have one of the league's most explosive offenses, and they're the better team from a position-by-position standpoint. But we saw that same script in last year's Super Bowl, and Mahomes wound up on top. Let's just hope this year's field isn't an ice skating rink in disguise.

Consensus ATS pick: Kansas City +2

Davenport: Over 47.5

This is simple—the lower the score of this game, the greater the chance of San Francisco losing. These Chiefs aren't built to score 40, and they know it. And for all the talk of how good the Niners are defensively, Detroit had its way with the San Fran defense for much of the NFC Championship Game. If this analyst is going to throw in his lot with the Fighting Purdys, then the path to victory lies in the over hitting.

Gagnon: Under 47.5

The Chiefs defense is still underrated. That unit has given up 20 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games and has surrendered just 13.3 points per game since the start of January. The offenses get talked about more, but these are the league's second- and third-ranked scoring defenses.

Hanford: Under 47.5

The 49ers should look to establish the run to try to slow down the aggressive game plan Spagnuolo's defense is likely to bring to the table against Purdy.

On the other side of the coin, I'd imagine the 49ers will look to keep Mahomes from ripping off big plays. Kansas City has been a middle-of-the-pack scoring team all season, and while the 49ers can put up points with the best of them, I like the Chiefs defense to make them work for everything they get.

You'll sweat this one out, but the under just barely hits.

Knox: Over 47.5

I fully anticipate a close game, but nothing I've seen from the 49ers defense since mid-December makes me believe it'll be a true defensive battle.

Since facing the Cardinals in Week 15, San Francisco has surrendered fewer than 21 points only once—to the Commanders. The 49ers can attack the Chiefs defense (24th in yards per carry allowed) on the ground, so I expect enough scoring from both teams for this one to hit the over.

Moton: Under 47.5

To reach Super Bowl 58, San Francisco and Kansas City have played in five postseason games combined and four of those games finished with a total lower than 47.5. In the AFC divisional round, the Chiefs beat a Buffalo Bills squad that tested them offensively in a 27-24 contest.

The 49ers field the third-ranked scoring offense, but they've had slow playoff starts, failing to score in the first quarter of their last two outings. With San Francisco's sluggish first quarters, Kansas City's second-ranked scoring defense and the Chiefs offensive limitations on the perimeter, take the under.

O'Donnell: Under 47.5

Sobleski: Under 47.5

The expectation is for the 49ers to establish their running game while allowing their defensive front to go to work on the other side of the ball. As part of that assumption, San Francisco will do everything in its power to limit chunk plays from Mahomes and Co.

To be fair, Shanahan's squad was unable to follow through with this approach a year ago. But with extra preparation time, while playing at a higher level, the Niners should be dialed in enough to at least slow the Chiefs to some degree and keep the game close.

Toporek: Over 47.5

The Chiefs have allowed only three opponents all season to score 24 or more points. They Jedi mind-tricked Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens into abandoning their ground attack in the AFC Championship Game and held them to only 10 points. But the Niners have scored 24 or more points in nine of their past 11 games, and their unmatched arsenal of skill position talent will be the biggest test yet for this Chiefs D. Let the fireworks commence.

Consensus O/U pick: Under 47.5

Davenport: Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

Just in case I haven't been clear, on Sunday, Purdy completes the circle—from Mr. Irrelevant to Super Bowl MVP. At that point, it's just a matter of which studio buys the rights and how much they pay Ryan Gosling. Probably want some bigger names for Shanahan and general manager John Lynch—can't wait for the part of the movie where Shanahan and Lynch pretend that landing Purdy wasn't blind luck.

Kidding aside, the winning quarterback isn't exactly a reach for an MVP pick.

Gagnon: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Come on...

Hanford: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

If the Chiefs win, imagining anyone but Mahomes hoisting the MVP trophy is difficult. The 49ers run defense has struggled as of late, but with Thuney possibly missing up front for Kansas City, Isiah Pacheco could struggle to break off chunk plays. That leaves Mahomes to make plays with his arm (and his legs) against a 49ers secondary that has struggled throughout the season.

Knox: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs

If the Chiefs win, Mahomes automatically gets the MVP nod, right? I don't think that's how this one plays out. I think San Francisco can limit Mahomes enough that a strong individual performance by Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice or Isiah Pacheco earns the award.

Given San Francisco's struggles against the run, my pregame prediction goes to Pacheco—who had four catches, 82 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against a far superior Ravens defense two weeks ago.

I still believe that Damien Williams should have been named MVP the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl. I think Pacheco will carry the offense in a similar manner and will win the award in the rematch.

Moton: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

McCaffrey deserves mention for MVP of the regular season, but we saw him run for 103 yards and a touchdown and still come up short against the Baltimore Ravens because of Lamar Jackson and his team's elite defense. Jackson will likely win the regular-season award, but if McCaffrey runs for 100-plus yards and a score on Sunday, he has a good shot to be the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did it 26 years ago.

O'Donnell: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Sobleski: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

Discussion may surround Purdy and what he is or isn't within the 49ers offense, but McCaffrey serves as the engine to the entire scheme. He's the game's best running back. He's a diabolical weapon out of the backfield. He's been held under 120 yards from scrimmage only once since mid-November, and that came in Week 17 when the 49ers clinched the NFC's top seed. If the 49ers are to capture the franchise's sixth Super Bowl victory, McCaffrey will be the driving reason behind their success.

Toporek: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Much like the regular-season MVP award, the Super Bowl MVP typically goes to a quarterback. Only five non-QBs have won it since 2006. Mahomes is thus a near-lock to be named MVP if the Chiefs win, unless part of the NFL's grand psy-op is to gift it to Kelce to appease Swiftie Nation.

Consensus MVP pick: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Davenport: Fred Warner, LB, 49ers

It was tempting to pick Nick Bosa here—the 49ers have to pressure Mahomes to win this game. But Warner is the glue that holds the San Francisco defense together. He's also going to play a big part in the most important thing San Francisco has to do reasonably well to win this game—keep Kelce in check. Warner gets 12-plus stops, makes a big play and stakes his claim to the title of the NFL's best off-ball linebacker.

Gagnon: Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs

I'm sticking to the beaten path with by far the best defensive player on the team that I'm quite sure will win the game. Sue me.

Hanford: George Karlaftis, DE, Chiefs

A lot of attention is given to Chris Jones on the Chiefs' defensive front, and rightfully so, but George Karlaftis' development as a second-year player has been a huge part of K.C.'s success defensively. The Chiefs should look to heat up the pocket for Purdy.

Karlaftis, who tied for the team lead in sacks at 10.5 this season, should be a major piece of that. Karlaftis has 2.5 sacks in the playoffs so far, and I like him to get home at least once in this one against a 49ers offensive line that has struggled this year outside of Trent Williams.

Knox: L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Chiefs

Pass-rushers get all the attention, but I don't think anyone should discount the value of a cornerback who can virtually erase one receiver on any given play. That's what Sneed is capable of.

Despite playing 99 percent of Kansas City's defensive snaps in the regular season, he allowed an opposing passer rating of just 56.2 and didn't allow a touchdown reception. It might not show up in the game book, but Sneed will have a massive impact on this contest.

Moton: Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers

By his production standards, Bosa, who's the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, has had an average 2023 campaign, recording 10.5 sacks and 44 pressures. On Sunday, Bosa will remind everyone why he's one of the league's elite pass-rushers.

On the edge, Bosa will turn left tackle Donovan Smith's second Super Bowl appearance into a nightmare and sack Mahomes multiple times.

Remember, in the NFC Championship Game, Bosa penetrated the Detroit Lions' stout offensive line to record four quarterback hits and a couple of sacks.

O'Donnell: Steve Spagnuolo, DC, Chiefs

Sobleski: Javon Hargrave, DT, 49ers

A year ago, Javon Hargrave and his Philadelphia Eagles didn't sack Mahomes during Super Bowl LVII. San Francisco can't allow that to happen again. Besides, the Niners are far too talented up front not to apply pressure, particularly with expectations of Thuney not being in the Chiefs lineup.

Hargrave is one of the game's best interior pass-rushers. He should see plenty of reps over left guard to create a mismatch. Or, San Francisco will stunt and blitz in an attempt to confuse Kansas City's blocking scheme. Either way, the 49ers must take advantage of what should be a weak link.

Toporek: L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Chiefs

The Chiefs need to make the Niners as one-dimensional as possible on Sunday. If the Niners get all of McCaffrey, Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle cooking, it'll be a long day for the Chiefs defense.

Sneed is the Chiefs' best hope of removing Aiyuk from that equation. He led the team with 14 pass breakups and two interceptions during the regular season, and he allowed a passer rating of only 56.2. If Purdy tempts the fates, don't be surprised if Sneed ends up with a key pick.

Consensus best defensive performance pick: L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Chiefs

Davenport: Deebo Samuel First TD Scorer (+900)

For me, Super Bowl props should be one of two things—ridiculous or long shots. The kind of wager you throw a sawbuck on before heading to a Super Bowl party where the game itself gets less attention from half the people there than the commercials.

McCaffrey to score first at plus-380 is the more obvious call, but Samuel scoring on a 15-yard reverse isn't implausible—followed by a touchdown celebration where he simulates hitting someone with a garbage can.

Gagnon: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown (-210)

Dude has scored 25 times this season, including the playoffs. The 49ers have a lot of options, but it always comes back to McCaffrey in the key moments. Shanahan should lean heavily on his top player in a huge spot.

Hanford: Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Purdy ran for 48 yards last week against the Lions and is averaging 31 yards rushing in the playoffs on 5.5 carries per game. Since Week 11, seven QBs have cleared this mark against the Chiefs defense. Granted Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts were part of that group, but we're also talking Easton Stick and Jake Browning as well.

Purdy is going to need to use his legs effectively in this one as the Chiefs throw the kitchen sink at him. I'd consider sprinkling on Purdy 25-plus rushing yards at plus-295, too.

Knox: Deebo Samuel Over 2.5 rushing attempts (-190)

If the 49ers don't test Kansas City's run defense early and often, I'll be stunned. That's the best way to attack the league's second-ranked unit (points and yards allowed), and I'd expect Shanahan to learn from the Ravens' mismanagement of the AFC title game. McCaffrey will carry the load, but some change-of-pace runs from Samuel should be on the menu. Samuel carried three times against the Lions, and I think that'll be his floor in this one.

Moton: Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+130)

Let's go with a winnable plus-money banger to work up a Super Bowl sweat. DraftKings must have felt generous because a Rice touchdown has great value at this number.

The 49ers won't allow tight end Kelce to beat them. He's a Future Hall of Famer with the most receptions in postseason history. The Chiefs will need another pass-catcher to shine in the bright lights against San Francisco's 14th-ranked pass defense, and Rice will be the guy.

Rice hasn't reached paydirt since the Chiefs' AFC Wild Card Round matchup with the Miami Dolphins, but he led Kansas City in touchdown receptions with seven for the regular season. In two of the Chiefs' last three games, Rice has caught at least eight passes. He's going to get some good looks against the 49ers' suspect pass defense and score a touchdown.

O'Donnell: Safety to Be Scored (+1000)

Sobleski: Javon Hargrave Over .25 Sacks (+195)

With Hargrave facing a favorable matchup, his ability to get upfield and at least pressure Mahomes enough to garner one sack should be expected. To understand just how good San Francisco's defensive front four is by itself, the starters generated 18 pressures against the Green Bay Packers offensive line during the NFC Divisional Round.

Going into the last two games of the regular season, only one inside-outside combo created more pressure than Hargrave and Bosa. Mahomes is truly great, but even the truly great ones struggle against legitimate pressure.

Toporek: Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Mahomes toned down his scrambling in the second half of the season, but he topped this line in seven of his first 10 games this year. He also ran for 44 yards on six carries in last year's Super Bowl despite coming into the game with a high-ankle sprain and aggravating that injury in the first half.

While Mahomes isn't as much of a dual threat as Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, he's the king of escaping from a broken pocket and scrambling for a demoralizing first down. I'm fully expecting at least one to two of those on Sunday.

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