Let’s lead with one of the best receivers in fantasy football. Mike Williams seeing 16 targets is shocking. He’s like Keenan Allen if Keenan Allen could average 20 yards per catch and also score TDs. He current production line is 31/471/6 — a 105/1,601/20 full season pace. This is not a misprint. The Chargers are going to regret not extending him before the season.
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I can’t take the coaches blowing the end of the game, and Brandon Staley has done it twice and gotten away with it twice. You don’t hand off when you’re playing for the 20-yard FG to end the game. You take a knee and kick it with three seconds left. So then Austin Ekeler gets carried by the defense into the end zone, giving millions bad beat and miracle-victory stories. And don’t tell me the kicker missed two extra points, so scoring was smart. This was half the distance and it’s a 99.7% kick. Kneel downs/FG is just math.
The turning point of the game was when the Chargers missed the extra point. The Browns were not going to be stopped in a tie game but they stopped themselves, having no urgency getting the ball back with the lead. Then you knew the Chargers would score, the only question was whether it would be too fast. It was but then the Browns had no idea how to manage the clock, throwing a bunch of clock-killing dump offs in the middle of the field. Cleveland is not built for speed.
Love the two stiff arms on the 52-yard TD run by Nick Chubb, who is just great. He’d be an all-time fantasy stud if Kareem Hunt wasn’t on the team.
The Saquon Barkley injurylooked worse than it was. Post game, the news was he would missone week. I’d have announced my retirement already.
I have no idea why Kadarius Toney, who was never “it” on the playground, was not picked up in every league. He had 13 targets and 189 yards. Good lord. I know that Daniel Jones may miss next week with his concussion, but Toney is a must-start now (and so obviously a must roster).
CeeDee Lamb just running by the Giants defense was good for his managers to see. But Dalton Schultz is a projectable thing. He’s a Top 5 TE. He led the team in targets, kids. That was supposed to be Lamb’s job.
Justin Fields is not running enough to start. There’s no passing volume here, either. You can’t play a QB on a team that throws a third of the time and doesn’t have the QB run.
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Khalil Herbert finished with as many touches and more carries than Damien Williams. I said on my waiver wire podcast that given Williams’ recent inactivity and age, second-waive of waivers or low-bidding Herbert was the sharp move. Williams did score but I see no projectable difference between the two while David Montgomery is out. Herbert actually was the better-looking runner, even though Williams’ TD jaunt was borderline spectacular.
On the other end of the spectrum, I don’t want to see another designed QB run in my life after watching the Niners. 2nd and 15? Designed QB run. 3rd and 7? Designed QB Run. 2nd and 5? You get the idea… Enough. I don’t know what position Trey Lance is playing, but it’s not QB. This is killing Elijah Mitchell. You want Jimmy G. back toot sweet if you own Mitchell, who is just so fast (4.3 40 at his pro day). If Mitchell would have just hugged the sidelines on a big run in the second-quarter, he would have scored. Instead he cut it back for some reason. Trey Sermon was a non-factor and I’m very confident that, when Jimmy Garoppolo is back, Mitchell will be a RB2.
On the biggest play of the game, Lance could not power it in on fourth downand was just blasted.
Bryan Edwards had a horrible drop on a busted play where he was wide open for a very long gain and the ball hit him right in the numbers, on 3rd and 2. But Derek Carr did not look good. Carr is back in the streaming scrum until he busts out again.
Davis Mills! What a game. Rookies like Mills are helpless against Bill Belichick. That’s why Mills only had a 141.7 rating and 11 yards per attempt. Remember, Mills out of high school was viewed as a future 1-1 NFL prospect. He just could not stay healthy. I can’t recommend Chris Moore though — this was just Belichick focusing everything on stopping Brandin Cooks.
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Urban Meyer is such a clown. He did not have James Robinson on the field on the fourth and goal at the half-yard line that was the Jaguars’ last chance to win. And he had a very lame excuse, almost as bad as, “I was just sitting there minding my own business when a woman starts lap dancing on me!” Okay, buddy.
I thinkI nailed fantasy football’s evolving thoughtsSunday on Laviska Shenault. ESPN’s Mike Clayhad an explanation, basically that the Jaguars moved him out of the slot (why?); but I’m sick of Shenault excuses.
Ja’Marr Chase is the first WR with four TDs of 30+ yards in the first five games of a season since Marvin Harrison in 2003. But he can’t separate! Between Chase and Elijah Moore, how worthless are training camp reports?
That Joe Mixon move for his TD that resulted in the fourth-quarter tie was some all-time elusiveness.
I predicted a 1/8 line for C.J. Uzomah and it was 2/16. So I underrated him!
Lots of scary hits on Sunday, includingthis on one Joe Burrow, who has a neck contusion. He’s lucky he’s alive. This is how defenses have to treat running QBs though.
The Bengals settled for a 57-yard FG instead of going for it on fourth and 2 with 26 seconds left and two TOs. That was dumb. They missed and then Aaron Rodgers made a play that should have beaten them except his kicker missed, one of five misses in a row in that game.
My T.J. Hockenson theory is playing out. I thought it was too dangerous for a TE to be the only serious receiving threat on his team. You thought it was a feature. I thought it was a bug. But this is only because of what makes me an expert — I’ve made every mistake that can be made in a very narrow field,including this one.Here is the ugly trend with Hockenson. Changing this is going to require real offensive ingenuity by the Detroit staff, but it’s possible.
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Justin Jefferson dominated the production and the targets in Minnesota, who beat Detroit miraculously. I felt bad for Dan Campbell because he did everything right, including kicking the ball in bounds after taking the late lead with the D’Andre Swift TD.Campbell was distraught after the game. But he was real. Being a real person is essential to being a great head coach and leader. His team is going to love him.
Alexander Mattison! Our founding father! He’s on the Mount Rushmore for fantasy handcuffs.
It was nice to see Najee Harris breakout vs. a seemingly stout Denver defense. And even Ben Roethlisberger looked okay. Chase Claypool has to be on the field every snap. He could win your league down the stretch.
Javonte Williams got caught at the one on a 49-yard run. He’s slow. Then he spiked the ball and that resulted in a 15-yard penalty and cost Denver four points.
Courtland Sutton was beasting out there but we couldn’t play him given his game-time status. You love 11 targets and getting the best of Minkah Fitzpatrick much of the day.
Mike Evans is on pace for 153 targets and a 99-1336-14 line. Sold! He does it so quietly. Leonard Fournette shows that teams care a lot more about postseason performance when they win a Super Bowl. Duh! Given the expected points for the Tampa Bay offense and his ADP, I do think Fournette can be a league winner.
Okay, enough Robby Anderson. He needs two good games in a row to be started again and it’s fine to drop him. Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts set the QB position back about 30 years today. But Darnold was so bad that you have to again question whether he’s just a straight bust.
Finally some passes to Alvin Kamara. What is so complicated?
The most frightening hit of the day, one that sort of makes you feel a little guilty for loving football so much,was the one of Taysom Hill. Good god, that should be a crime.
(Top photo: Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino
