Ben Kenney
May 25, 2024 7:45 am CT
The Big Ten landscape will look different when the 2024 season kicks off. USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington will be conference members, and the longstanding East-West division model will be gone.
The results of these changes are somewhat easy to predict. Programs previously stuck in the Big Ten East below Ohio State and Michigan (we’re looking at you, Penn State) now get a better draw each season, while every Big Ten West team no longer receives the parachute into the Big Ten Championship game.
Related:Big Ten football 2024 season win-loss record predictions for each team after spring practice
The 2024 season should be entertaining, to say the least, as some of the sport’s powers can battle for the conference crown in a pool play format.
One key piece that remains an unknown: the quality of the four former Pac-12 powers in the new conference environment. Oregon may be well-equipped to succeed from Day 1, but there are questions whether Washington, USC and UCLA can hit the ground running. For the latter two teams, I’d bet no.
Related: Post-spring Big Ten football 2024 power rankings, starting quarterback rankings
Every program’s conference and nonconference schedule is an important variable in whether it can find success. Some programs, including Wisconsin, wish conference realignment held off for a few years, to say the least, to prolong the life of the former scheduling model.
To see how the changes affect all 18 Big Ten members in 2024, we’re here to rank every team’s 2024 schedule — both conference and nonconference.
The equation used to calculate each schedule is simple. First, we take each team’s updated ESPN SP+ ratingto find numerical values for every game, and therefore every schedule. Then add every opponent’s SP+ rating together to find a Total Opponent Score. That large number is divided by the 12 total games to find the Average Opponent Score — a number that can then be compared to the SP+ leaderboard to find the average quality of team each schedule contains.
In simple terms: each game is assigned a numerical value. The higher the value, the tougher the game. Those numbers are all added together to find a final value for the schedule. The average of that final number can then be compared to the SP+ leaderboard — meaning that on average each week, a team will play the “Xth-best” team in the nation.
(Note: Home and away is not factored into the model. Also, Football Championship Subdivision opponents are not listed in SP+. Every FCS opponent was assessed a “minus-10” rating, akin to the No. 100-ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision)
Here is an in-depth look at the Big Ten’s strength of schedule ranking entering the 2024 season:
18
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sept. 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at SHI Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 32.8
Average Opponent Score:2.73 (akin to the 51st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 55.5 (18th — the easiest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Washington (9.1)
Nebraska (7.1)
Wisconsin (10.8)
UCLA (11.3)
USC (13.6)
Minnesota (4.8)
Maryland (5.0)
Illinois (-1.3)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Nonconference:
Howard (FCS -10)
Akron (-22.4)
Virginia Tech (9.7)
17
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the Indiana football spring game at Memorial Stadium on Thursday, April 18, 2024. Bobby Goddin/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
Total Opponent Score: 34.5
Average Opponent Score: 2.87 (akin to the 50th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 81.4 (13th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
UCLA (11.3)
Maryland (5.0)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Nebraska (7.1)
Washington (9.1)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Michigan (27.5)
Ohio State (32.7)
Purdue (-3.0)
Nonconference:
FIU (-17.9)
Western Illinois (FCS -10)
Charlotte (-19.0)
16
Ohio State Buckeyes
Dec. 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day walks off the field after losing 14-3 to Missouri Tigers in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium. Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK
Total Opponent Score: 43.3
Average Opponent Score:3.60 (akin to the 50th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 88.4 (9th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Michigan State (-4.9)
Iowa (13.2)
Oregon (30.8)
Nebraska (7.1)
PSU (26.8)
Purdue (-3.0)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Indiana (-5.7)
Michigan (27.5)
Nonconference:
Akron (-22.4)
Western Michigan (-11.5)
Marshall (-11.2)
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions onBuckeyes Wire
15
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nov. 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Memorial Stadium. Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 44.8
Average Opponent Score:3.73 (akin to the 50th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 75.5 (16th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Illinois (-1.3)
Purdue (-3.0)
Rutgers (3.9)
Indiana (-5.7)
Ohio State (32.7)
UCLA (11.3)
USC (13.6)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Iowa (13.2)
Nonconference:
UTEP (-18.2)
Colorado (-2.5)
Northern Iowa (FCS -10)
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis, and opinions onCornhuskers Wire
14
Maryland Terrapins
Oct. 28, 2023; Evanston, Illinois; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley (center) on the sidelines during the second half at Ryan Field. David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 45.9
Average Opponent Score:3.82 (akin to the 49th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 79.1 (14th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Michigan State (-4.9)
Indiana (-5.7)
Northwestern (-3.4)
USC (13.6)
Minnesota (4.8)
Oregon (30.8)
Rutgers (3.9)
Iowa (13.2)
PSU (26.8)
Nonconference:
UConn (-18.7)
Virginia (-4.5)
Villanova (FCS -10)
13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Dec. 30, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the sidelines against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 62.7
Average Opponent Score:5.22 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 83.0 (12th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Illinois (-1.3)
UCLA (11.3)
USC (13.6)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Ohio State (32.7)
Washington (9.1)
Purdue (-3.0)
Minnesota (4.8)
Maryland (5.0)
Nonconference:
West Virginia (9.4)
Bowling Green (-9.1)
Kent State (-20.6)
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions onNittany Lions Wire
12
Illinois Fighting Illini
Oct. 29, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema greets linebacker Tarique Barnes (8) on the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 71.8
Average Opponent Score:5.98 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 89.6 (8th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Nebraska (7.1)
PSU (26.8)
Purdue (-3.0)
Michigan (27.5)
Oregon (30.8)
Minnesota (4.8)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Rutgers (3.9)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Nonconference:
Eastern Illinois (FCS -10)
Kansas (8.5)
Central Michigan (-16.3)
11
Iowa Hawkeyes
Oct. 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 74.2
Average Opponent Score:6.18 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 72.5 (17th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Minnesota (4.8)
Ohio State (32.7)
Washington (9.1)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Wisconsin (10.8)
UCLA (11.3)
Maryland (5.0)
Nebraska (7.1)
Nonconference:
Illinois State (FCS -10)
Iowa State (10.2)
Troy (1.5)
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions onHawkeyes Wire
10
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith looks on during the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK
Total Opponent Score: 75.1
Average Opponent Score:6.26 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 103.1 (5th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Maryland (5.0)
Ohio State (32.7)
Oregon (30.8)
Iowa (13.2)
Michigan (27.5)
Indiana (-5.7)
Illinois (-1.3)
Purdue (-3.0)
Rutgers (3.9)
Nonconference:
FAU (-14.2)
Prairie View (FCS -10)
Boston College (-3.8)
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions onSpartans Wire
9
Northwestern Wildcats
Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun shakes hands with Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Jack Kennedy (1) before the game at SHI Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 82.3
Average Opponent Score:6.85 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 88.3 (10th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Washington (9.1)
Indiana (-5.7)
Maryland (5.0)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Iowa (13.2)
Purdue (-3.0)
Ohio State (32.7)
Michigan (27.5)
Illinois (-1.3)
Nonconference:
Miami (Ohio) (-0.6)
Duke (4.6)
Eastern Illinois (FCS -10)
8
Oregon Ducks
Sept. 30, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning walks on the field before the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 86.5
Average Opponent Score:7.20 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 87.2 (11th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
UCLA (11.3)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Ohio State (32.7)
Purdue (-3.0)
Illinois (-1.3)
Michigan (27.5)
Maryland (5.0)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Washington (9.1)
Nonconference:
Idaho (FCS -10)
Boise State (7.8)
Oregon State (1.5)
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions onDucks Wire
7
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Oct. 21, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck watches a replay against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 87.6
Average Opponent Score:7.30 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 110.8 (2nd-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Iowa (13.2)
Michigan (27.5)
USC (13.6)
UCLA (11.3)
Maryland (5.0)
Illinois (-1.3)
Rutgers (3.9)
PSU (26.8)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Nonconference:
UNC (3.8)
Rhode Island (FCS -10)
Nevada (-17.0)
6
Washington Huskies
Dec. 1, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada; Washington Huskies running back Dillon Johnson (7) rushes against the Oregon Ducks during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 93.3
Average Opponent Score:7.77 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 118 (1st–the toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Northwestern (-3.4)
Rutgers (3.9)
Michigan (27.5)
Iowa (13.2)
Indiana (-5.7)
USC (13.6)
PSU (26.8)
UCLA (11.3)
Oregon(30.8)
Nonconference:
Weber State (FCS -10)
Eastern Michigan (-15.8)
Washington State (1.1)
5
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore watches a play during the second half of the spring game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, April 20, 2024. Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK
Total Opponent Score: 99.2
Average Opponent Score:8.26 (akin to the 37th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 75.7 (15th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
USC(13.6)
Minnesota (4.8)
Washington (9.1)
Illinois (-1.3)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Oregon (30.8)
Indiana (-5.7)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Ohio State (32.7)
Nonconference:
Fresno State (1.4)
Texas (29.5)
Arkansas St (-7.4)
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions onWolverines Wire
4
Wisconsin Badgers
Oct. 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell leads the football team onto the field for warmups prior to the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 101.4
Average Opponent Score:8.45 (akin to the 37th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 93.8 (6th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
USC (13.6)
Purdue (-3.0)
Rutgers (3.9)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Penn State (26.8)
Iowa (13.2)
Oregon (30.8)
Nebraska (7.1)
Minnesota (4.8)
Nonconference
Western Michigan (-11.5)
South Dakota (FCS -10)
Alabama (29.1)
3
Purdue Boilermakers
Nov. 18, 2023; Evanston, Illinois; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters watches his team play against the Northwestern Wildcats in the fourth quarter at Ryan Field. Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 108.4
Average Opponent Score:9.03 (akin to the 35th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 92.9 (7th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Nebraska (7.1)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Illinois (-1.3)
Oregon (30.8)
Northwestern (-3.4)
Ohio State (32.7)
Penn State (26.8)
Michigan State (-4.9)
Indiana (-5.7)
Nonconference:
Indiana State (FCS -10)
Notre Dame (24.0)
Oregon State (1.5)
2
UCLA Bruins
Feb. 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 119.1
Average Opponent Score:9.92 (akin to the 31st-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 103.6 (4th-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Indiana (-5.7)
Oregon (30.8)
PSU (26.8)
Minnesota (4.8)
Rutgers (3.9)
Nebraska (7.1)
Iowa (13.2)
Washington (9.1)
USC (13.6)
Nonconference:
Hawaii (-11.0)
LSU (25.1)
Fresno State (1.4)
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions onUCLA Wire
1
USC Trojans
Oct. 28, 2023; Berkeley, California; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a penalty during the third quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
Total Opponent Score: 144.4
Average Opponent Score:12.03 (akin to the 25th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule Score: 106.3 (3rd-toughest conference schedule)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Michigan (27.5)
Wisconsin (10.8)
Minnesota (4.8)
PSU (26.8)
Maryland (5.0)
Rutgers (3.9)
Washington (9.1)
Nebraska (7.1)
UCLA (11.3)
Nonconference:
LSU (25.1)
Utah State (-11.0)
Notre Dame (24.0)
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions onTrojans Wire
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